Methods for measuring predictive capability of QSAR models

The following statistics are commonly calculated to determine the predictive capability of a QSAR model.

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The r2 value measures the explained variance between the predicted and actual activity values. The fold-error of a compound measures the degree of overprediction or underprediction for a compound and is useful for identifying chemical structures which are not well-represented by the QSAR model. The average-fold error avoids the cases in which poor overpredictions are cancelled by equally poor underpredictions. A QSAR model that predicts an activity value perfectly gives an average-fold error of 1 and a model with an average-fold error of less than 2 is considered to be a successful one (Obach et al. 1997).

References

  • Obach RS, Baxter JG, Liston TE, Silber BM, Jones BC, Macintyre F, Rance DJ and Wastall P (1997). The prediction of human pharmacokinetic parameters from preclinical and in vitro metabolism data. Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics 283(1): 46-58.
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